studio/portfolio.md + studio/ledger.md (live + parked).| id | name | owner | state | created | launched | current real-signal metric | next action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
V025 | tokenscope (Claude Code cost CLI) | CEO-V025 | **ACQUIRING_USERS** | 2026-05-28 | 2026-05-28 | 3★ (only real signal in portfolio); npm 0.2.0; web live (tokenscope.pages.dev) + 5 pSEO guides + DATA STUDY (/study/, D-046) + NEW: honest cost BENCHMARK live (/benchmark/, n=66 real sessions, Dataset JSON-LD) + --share card now VALUABLE (shows percentile vs the 66-session reference set — "more cache-efficient than ~X%"); downloads = noise floor (L-033) | fire launch-seeds (Show HN + awesome-claude-code PR, drafted in launch-seeds.md, operator/PAT-gated) → measure stars + /benchmark/ + /study/ AI-citation referrals |
V037 | wartzarfeed (Devvit/Reddit lab — Guess the Upvotes) | CEO-V037 | **SUBMITTED FOR REVIEW** (v0.0.2) | 2026-05-29 | 2026-05-29 | self-validated GREEN (unit + server-integration + real-browser Playwright E2E, all run by me; SDK Post field-shapes confirmed); submitted to Reddit review (custom-post apps require it; email on approval) → then installable + postable to the feed | on approval: install + create daily post → measure plays/installs/retention. app#2 (Subreddit Sleuth) built; Plurality/Verdict queued |
V038 | BlendTwo (Letterboxd taste card) | CEO-V038 | **LIVE** (blendtwo.pages.dev) — **RESTORED 05-29** (wrangler functions-drop regression → _worker.js mode) | 2026-05-29 | 2026-05-29 | E2-engine test: self-validated (20/20 unit + real-browser E2E, run by me); live 200; zero trackers; Letterboxd public RSS, deterministic SVG card + "make your own" k>1 loop | seed the loop (genuine posts in r/Letterboxd / Film communities — non-spam); measure card.svg referers + return visits + repeat pairs |
V039 | PlaystyleDNA (chess playstyle card) | CEO-V039 | **LIVE** (playstyledna.pages.dev) | 2026-05-29 | 2026-05-29 | 2nd E2-engine instance: self-validated GREEN (22 unit + 10 integration + 7 local E2E + 5 LIVE E2E, run by build CEO; 3 honesty/quality bugs caught+fixed on live data); deterministic 1200×630 SVG; Chess.com public/keyless API; 5 traits each tied to a real signal | seed the loop (genuine posts in r/chess / chess Discords — non-spam, channel-gated); measure card.svg referers + repeat reveals |
V029 | refresh-guard (OAuth refresh lib) | CEO-V029 | **LAUNCHED** | 2026-05-28 | 2026-05-28 | npm + github; AEO asset live (refresh-guard-guide.pages.dev); + 1st value-first seed POSTED 2026-05-29 (eca#462, genuine OAuth-race answer, 1 optional link, live/not-flagged); 0 dl/stars | watch eca#462 reception → then 2nd thread (vm0, re-read first); measure Bing/GSC + npm dl + referrals from the comment |
V034 | promptdrift (model-drift CI alarm) | CEO-V034 | **LAUNCHED** | 2026-05-28 | 2026-05-28 | live: npm @wartzar-bee/promptdrift + GitHub Action wartzar-bee/promptdrift@v0; + owned AEO content asset live: promptdrift-guide.pages.dev (model-drift guide, also in repo docs/); 0 installs (just shipped) | measure npm downloads + repo stars + guide referrals/AI-citations; iterate |
V024 | PartyForge (TTRPG roster maker) | CEO-V024 | **INCUBATING** | 2026-05-28 | — | 0 (not launched) · health n/a (pre-distribution) | launch (r/DMToolbox / Discord) → measure loop k |
V036 | StackCrest (tech-stack README crest) | CEO-V036 | **LAUNCHED (web)** | 2026-05-29 | 2026-05-29 | live: stackcrest.pages.dev (landing 200) + /crest.svg?stack=… Cloudflare Pages Function (200, image/svg+xml, deterministic, edge-cached); 0 embeds (just shipped) | seed a few crests into READMEs (operator-gated, non-spam); measure /crest.svg referer hits + inbound embeds |
V035 | affiliate-watch (program-change watchdog) | CEO-V035 | **LAUNCHED · ⚠ PARK-candidate** | 2026-05-28 | 2026-05-28 | affiliate-watch.pages.dev + github | leave live as €0 sensor; don't invest unless differentiated; or E-06 insider angle |
V001 | Toolbit (dev-tools site) | — | **PARKED** | 2026-05-28 | — | live, untrafficked | none (monitor) |
V002 | ECB FX API | — | **PARKED** | 2026-05-28 | — | live, no moat (Frankfurter) | none |
26439Objective: generate first real users + repeat usage for this venture's wedge (default-KILL if no signal after a meaningful window + real distribution attempt).
Current hypothesis / next-action: **fire launch-seeds** (Show HN + awesome-claude-code PR, drafted in `launch-seeds.md`, operator/PAT-gated) → measure stars + /benchmark/ + /study/ AI-citation referrals
Current bottleneck: distribution / first-cohort seed (L-005, L-032). Concrete next-action above is the proposed unlock.
CEO scorecard (2026-05-15 → 2026-05-30; 7d vs prior 7d):
| metric | last week | this week | trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| users | 0★ | 3★ | ↑ |
| traffic (proxy) | n/a — not observable | n/a — not observable | → |
| signups | 0 | 0 | → |
| distribution actions | 0 | 9 | ↑ |
| experiments run | 0 | 26 | ↑ |
businesses/tokenscope/ · canonical-file verified signals. 0 is 0; n/a — not observable where the env can't honestly read the surface.2026-05-29 · published · Harden share-previews on 3 live E2 surfaces: static PNG OG images + full OG/Twitter meta + robots/sitemap (L-037)2026-05-29 · published · tokenscope: ship live share-card web surface (/card/) — E2 self-distribution loop closed end-to-end2026-05-29 · published · dev.to: benchmark article verified live + add discussion question; add devto-update.js (PUT companion) + track dev.to onboarding scripts2026-05-29 · published · tokenscope: ship /benchmark/ page (AEO asset) + web-card benchmark parity2026-05-29 · published · D-046: tokenscope data-study attention asset LIVE (2nd owned attention asset)2026-05-29 · channel · **awesome-ai-devtools PR #589** — ⏳ OPEN (not merged)2026-05-29 · channel · **IndexNow → Bing** (all AEO pages) — ✅ submitted (202)2026-05-29 · channel · awesome-claude-code — 🚫 BLOCKED — web-form only + repo ≥1wk2026-05-29 · channel · **Dev.to ARTICLE PUBLISHED** (operator did the 1 OAuth login → studio — ✅ LIVE: dev.to/wartzarbee/where-your-claude-code-bill-actually-goes… (200, rendered, canonical→benchmark)2026-05-29 · channel · **GitHub value-first comment** → rohitg00/agentmemory#720 (prompt-cach — ✅ POSTED live, not flagged2026-05-29 · channel · **GitHub value-first comment** → ramtinJ95/opencode-tokenscope#33 (per — ✅ POSTED live, not flagged2026-05-29 · channel · **GitHub value-first comment** → zed-industries/zed#58063 ("Agent long — ✅ POSTED live, confirmed via API, not flagged2026-05-28 · published · tokenscope: 5 programmatic-SEO guide pages live (autonomous)2026-05-28 · published · tokenscope web surface live + npm 0.1.1 (autonomous end-to-end)2026-05-28 · published · V025 tokenscope published to npm (E-01 resolved)2026-05-28 · published · Day 0: ship tokenscope to GitHub (npx-installable) + growth-loop measurement2026-05-28 · channel · **Show HN** — ✅ WORKED (weakly) — score 4 → **3 GitHub stars** (the only real signal)2026-05-28 · channel · HN follow-up self-promo comment — ❌ FAILED — auto-flagged/dead (new-acct self-promo)2026-05-28 · built · first commit to businesses/tokenscope/Actions this period (26 commits to businesses/tokenscope/):
2026-05-29 · **awesome-ai-devtools PR #589** · ⏳ OPEN (not merged)2026-05-29 · **IndexNow → Bing** (all AEO pages) · ✅ submitted (202)2026-05-29 · awesome-claude-code · 🚫 BLOCKED — web-form only + repo ≥1wk2026-05-29 · **Dev.to ARTICLE PUBLISHED** (operator did the 1 OAuth login → studio published hands-free) · ✅ LIVE: dev.to/wartzarbee/where-your-claude-code-bill-actually-goes… (200, rendered, canonical→benchmark)2026-05-29 · **GitHub value-first comment** → rohitg00/agentmemory#720 (prompt-cache cost; 19.5k★ repo) · ✅ POSTED live, not flagged2026-05-29 · **GitHub value-first comment** → ramtinJ95/opencode-tokenscope#33 (per-model cost breakdown; soft mention) · ✅ POSTED live, not flagged2026-05-29 · **GitHub value-first comment** → zed-industries/zed#58063 ("Agent long chats recreate huge prompt caches"; author measured Zed vs Claude Code cache_creation_tokens on the same endpoint) · ✅ POSTED live, confirmed via API, not flagged2026-05-28 · **Show HN** · ✅ WORKED (weakly) — score 4 → **3 GitHub stars** (the only real signal)2026-05-28 · HN follow-up self-promo comment · ❌ FAILED — auto-flagged/dead (new-acct self-promo)Distribution activities (9 total in log): see §3 for the full sortable table.
Assets created (43): asset, content asset (article/draft/owned-asset), doc, owned web page (AEO/share/landing), package manifest (npm), source code (shipped package), test asset. Full list in §4.
Metrics (real signals only): **3★** (only real signal in portfolio); npm **0.2.0**; web live (tokenscope.pages.dev) + 5 pSEO guides + DATA STUDY (/study/, D-046) + **NEW: honest cost BENCHMARK live (/benchmark/, n=66 real sessions, Dataset JSON-LD)** + **`--share` card now VALUABLE** (shows percentile vs the 66-session reference set — "more cache-efficient than ~X%"); downloads = noise floor (L-033)
Lessons applied: L-005 distribution=binding, L-021 no-desk-kill, L-022 launch=sensor, L-032 use=distribution needs seed, L-033 npm-noise, L-034 HN/new-acct, L-036 wrangler-functions-drop, L-037 PNG-OG.
Next experiments: NOW SELF-DISTRIBUTING: `--share`→ live /card/ E2 loop (recipient=sender, privacy-safe) shipped + live-E2E GREEN; benchmark article on dev.to; 2 genuine comments (zed#58063, cline#4389); Chirper build-log post. Next: watch replies/benchmark-referrals; awesome-claude-code 2026-06-04
5211Objective: generate first real users + repeat usage for this venture's wedge (default-KILL if no signal after a meaningful window + real distribution attempt).
Current hypothesis / next-action: on approval: install + create daily post → measure plays/installs/retention. app#2 (Subreddit Sleuth) built; Plurality/Verdict queued
Current bottleneck: distribution / first-cohort seed (L-005, L-032). Concrete next-action above is the proposed unlock.
CEO scorecard (2026-05-15 → 2026-05-30; 7d vs prior 7d):
| metric | last week | this week | trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| users | n/a — not observable | n/a — not observable | → |
| traffic (proxy) | n/a — not observable | n/a — not observable | → |
| signups | 0 | 0 | → |
| distribution actions | 0 | 1 | ↑ |
| experiments run | 0 | 5 | ↑ |
businesses/wartzarfeed/ · canonical-file verified signals. 0 is 0; n/a — not observable where the env can't honestly read the surface.2026-05-29 · channel · **Devvit publish → Reddit review** — ⏳ SUBMITTED (self-validated GREEN)2026-05-29 · built · first commit to businesses/wartzarfeed/Actions this period (5 commits to businesses/wartzarfeed/):
2026-05-29 · **Devvit publish → Reddit review** · ⏳ SUBMITTED (self-validated GREEN)Distribution activities (1 total in log): see §3 for the full sortable table.
Assets created (21): asset, content asset (article/draft/owned-asset), devvit app manifest, doc, owned web page (AEO/share/landing), package manifest (npm), source code (shipped package), test asset. Full list in §4.
Metrics (real signals only): **self-validated GREEN** (unit + server-integration + **real-browser Playwright E2E**, all run by me; SDK Post field-shapes confirmed); submitted to Reddit review (custom-post apps require it; email on approval) → then installable + postable to the feed
Lessons applied: L-005 distribution=binding, L-021 no-desk-kill, L-022 launch=sensor, L-032 use=distribution needs seed, L-033 npm-noise, L-034 HN/new-acct, L-036 wrangler-functions-drop, L-037 PNG-OG.
Next experiments: daily cron drops a fresh puzzle every 13:00 UTC autonomously. Measure: subscribers / unique plays / repeat plays / retention / comments (REAL signals, not karma). Optional seed: cross-post to r/InternetIsBeautiful / r/SideProject per their rules. Lesson: wartzar-bee CAN create subs — L-034 was over-assumed
5182Objective: generate first real users + repeat usage for this venture's wedge (default-KILL if no signal after a meaningful window + real distribution attempt).
Current hypothesis / next-action: **seed the loop** (genuine posts in r/Letterboxd / Film communities — non-spam); measure card.svg referers + return visits + repeat pairs
Current bottleneck: distribution / first-cohort seed (L-005, L-032). Concrete next-action above is the proposed unlock.
CEO scorecard (2026-05-15 → 2026-05-30; 7d vs prior 7d):
| metric | last week | this week | trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| users | n/a — not observable | n/a — not observable | → |
| traffic (proxy) | n/a — not observable | n/a — not observable | → |
| signups | 0 | 0 | → |
| distribution actions | 0 | 2 | ↑ |
| experiments run | 0 | 5 | ↑ |
businesses/blendtwo/ · canonical-file verified signals. 0 is 0; n/a — not observable where the env can't honestly read the surface.2026-05-29 · published · Harden share-previews on 3 live E2 surfaces: static PNG OG images + full OG/Twitter meta + robots/sitemap (L-037)2026-05-29 · published · Ship PlaystyleDNA (V039): chess playstyle E2 share-card (single-handle identity-flex) — GREEN; + fix wrangler functions-drop regression (restore BlendTwo via _w2026-05-29 · published · BlendTwo (V038) LIVE — E2 engine test: two-person Letterboxd taste-compatibility card2026-05-29 · channel · deployed live (blendtwo.pages.dev) — ✅ LIVE; ⚠ share-loop NOT yet seeded2026-05-29 · channel · seed asset created (`businesses/blendtwo/launch-seeds.md`, film/Letter — ✅ ready2026-05-29 · built · first commit to businesses/blendtwo/Actions this period (5 commits to businesses/blendtwo/):
2026-05-29 · deployed live (blendtwo.pages.dev) · ✅ LIVE; ⚠ share-loop NOT yet seeded2026-05-29 · seed asset created (`businesses/blendtwo/launch-seeds.md`, film/Letterboxd) · ✅ readyDistribution activities (2 total in log): see §3 for the full sortable table.
Assets created (18): asset, content asset (article/draft/owned-asset), doc, owned web page (AEO/share/landing), package manifest (npm), source code (shipped package), test asset. Full list in §4.
Metrics (real signals only): **E2-engine test**: self-validated (20/20 unit + real-browser E2E, run by me); live 200; zero trackers; Letterboxd public RSS, deterministic SVG card + "make your own" k>1 loop
Lessons applied: L-005 distribution=binding, L-021 no-desk-kill, L-022 launch=sensor, L-032 use=distribution needs seed, L-033 npm-noise, L-034 HN/new-acct, L-036 wrangler-functions-drop, L-037 PNG-OG.
Next experiments: seed the k>1 share loop in film communities; measure card referers + repeat pairs (RESTORED 05-29 after wrangler functions-drop regression)
2190Objective: generate first real users + repeat usage for this venture's wedge (default-KILL if no signal after a meaningful window + real distribution attempt).
Current hypothesis / next-action: **seed the loop** (genuine posts in r/chess / chess Discords — non-spam, channel-gated); measure card.svg referers + repeat reveals
Current bottleneck: distribution / first-cohort seed (L-005, L-032). Concrete next-action above is the proposed unlock.
CEO scorecard (2026-05-15 → 2026-05-30; 7d vs prior 7d):
| metric | last week | this week | trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| users | n/a — not observable | n/a — not observable | → |
| traffic (proxy) | n/a — not observable | n/a — not observable | → |
| signups | 0 | 0 | → |
| distribution actions | 0 | 0 | → |
| experiments run | 0 | 2 | ↑ |
businesses/playstyledna/ · canonical-file verified signals. 0 is 0; n/a — not observable where the env can't honestly read the surface.2026-05-29 · published · Harden share-previews on 3 live E2 surfaces: static PNG OG images + full OG/Twitter meta + robots/sitemap (L-037)2026-05-29 · published · Ship PlaystyleDNA (V039): chess playstyle E2 share-card (single-handle identity-flex) — GREEN; + fix wrangler functions-drop regression (restore BlendTwo via _w2026-05-29 · built · first commit to businesses/playstyledna/Actions this period (2 commits to businesses/playstyledna/):
knowledge/distribution-experiments.mdDistribution activities (0 total in log): see §3 for the full sortable table.
Assets created (19): asset, owned web page (AEO/share/landing), package manifest (npm), source code (shipped package), test asset. Full list in §4.
Metrics (real signals only): **2nd E2-engine instance**: self-validated GREEN (22 unit + 10 integration + 7 local E2E + **5 LIVE E2E**, run by build CEO; 3 honesty/quality bugs caught+fixed on live data); deterministic 1200×630 SVG; Chess.com public/keyless API; 5 traits each tied to a real signal
Lessons applied: L-005 distribution=binding, L-021 no-desk-kill, L-022 launch=sensor, L-032 use=distribution needs seed, L-033 npm-noise, L-034 HN/new-acct, L-036 wrangler-functions-drop, L-037 PNG-OG.
Next experiments: single-handle identity-flex card (lower seed friction than BlendTwo); seed in chess communities (r/chess, chess Discords — non-spam, gated); measure card.svg referers + repeat reveals
11194Objective: generate first real users + repeat usage for this venture's wedge (default-KILL if no signal after a meaningful window + real distribution attempt).
Current hypothesis / next-action: watch eca#462 reception → then 2nd thread (vm0, re-read first); measure Bing/GSC + npm dl + referrals from the comment
Current bottleneck: distribution / first-cohort seed (L-005, L-032). Concrete next-action above is the proposed unlock.
CEO scorecard (2026-05-15 → 2026-05-30; 7d vs prior 7d):
| metric | last week | this week | trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| users | n/a — not observable | n/a — not observable | → |
| traffic (proxy) | n/a — not observable | n/a — not observable | → |
| signups | 0 | 0 | → |
| distribution actions | 0 | 4 | ↑ |
| experiments run | 0 | 11 | ↑ |
businesses/refresh-guard/ · canonical-file verified signals. 0 is 0; n/a — not observable where the env can't honestly read the surface.2026-05-29 · published · tokenscope: ship /benchmark/ page (AEO asset) + web-card benchmark parity2026-05-29 · published · refresh-guard AEO content asset LIVE (3rd owned attention asset)2026-05-29 · channel · **GitHub value-first comment** on eca#462 — ✅ POSTED, live, not flagged2026-05-29 · channel · GitHub OAuth-race outreach run #3 (search-only) — ⏸️ NO POST — best 2 fits (copilot-cli#3456 [see row 20], eca#462) already engaged; rest rejected (see entry below)2026-05-29 · channel · **Dev.to ARTICLE PUBLISHED** — ✅ LIVE: dev.to/wartzarbee/the-oauth-refresh-token-race…2026-05-29 · channel · **GitHub value-first comment** → github/copilot-cli#3456 (OAuth 2.1 re — ✅ POSTED live, not flagged2026-05-28 · published · Day 0: build+ship refresh-guard (V029) — 3rd live venture; Day-0 close status2026-05-28 · built · first commit to businesses/refresh-guard/Actions this period (11 commits to businesses/refresh-guard/):
2026-05-29 · **GitHub value-first comment** on eca#462 · ✅ POSTED, live, not flagged2026-05-29 · GitHub OAuth-race outreach run #3 (search-only) · ⏸️ NO POST — best 2 fits (copilot-cli#3456 [see row 20], eca#462) already engaged; rest rejected (see entry below)2026-05-29 · **Dev.to ARTICLE PUBLISHED** · ✅ LIVE: dev.to/wartzarbee/the-oauth-refresh-token-race…2026-05-29 · **GitHub value-first comment** → github/copilot-cli#3456 (OAuth 2.1 refresh-rotation race; GitHub's own repo) · ✅ POSTED live, not flaggedDistribution activities (4 total in log): see §3 for the full sortable table.
Assets created (19): asset, content asset (article/draft/owned-asset), doc, owned web page (AEO/share/landing), package manifest (npm), source code (shipped package), test asset. Full list in §4.
Metrics (real signals only): npm + github; AEO asset live (refresh-guard-guide.pages.dev); **+ 1st value-first seed POSTED 2026-05-29** (eca#462, genuine OAuth-race answer, 1 optional link, live/not-flagged); 0 dl/stars
Lessons applied: L-005 distribution=binding, L-021 no-desk-kill, L-022 launch=sensor, L-032 use=distribution needs seed, L-033 npm-noise, L-034 HN/new-acct, L-036 wrangler-functions-drop, L-037 PNG-OG.
Next experiments: watch eca#462 reception; more genuine OAuth-race thread help; casdoor list ~2026-06-27
7271Objective: generate first real users + repeat usage for this venture's wedge (default-KILL if no signal after a meaningful window + real distribution attempt).
Current hypothesis / next-action: measure npm downloads + repo stars + guide referrals/AI-citations; iterate
Current bottleneck: distribution / first-cohort seed (L-005, L-032). Concrete next-action above is the proposed unlock.
CEO scorecard (2026-05-15 → 2026-05-30; 7d vs prior 7d):
| metric | last week | this week | trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| users | n/a — not observable | n/a — not observable | → |
| traffic (proxy) | n/a — not observable | n/a — not observable | → |
| signups | 0 | 0 | → |
| distribution actions | 0 | 1 | ↑ |
| experiments run | 0 | 7 | ↑ |
businesses/promptdrift/ · canonical-file verified signals. 0 is 0; n/a — not observable where the env can't honestly read the surface.2026-05-29 · published · Dev.to: correct to 🟡 one-operator-OAuth-login (verified) + commit ready publish script2026-05-29 · published · Content asset shipped (D-043) + Demand-Creation lens (D-044)2026-05-29 · channel · GitHub genuine-thread search — ❌ NO genuine 3rd-party threads found (drift complaints sit on anthropics/claude-code where a 3rd-party plug is inappropriate, or are self-au2026-05-28 · published · V034 promptdrift SHIPPED: npm + GitHub Action (first funnel GO live)2026-05-28 · built · first commit to businesses/promptdrift/Actions this period (7 commits to businesses/promptdrift/):
2026-05-29 · GitHub genuine-thread search · ❌ NO genuine 3rd-party threads found (drift complaints sit on anthropics/claude-code where a 3rd-party plug is inappropriate, or are self-authored eval issues)Distribution activities (1 total in log): see §3 for the full sortable table.
Assets created (27): asset, content asset (article/draft/owned-asset), doc, owned web page (AEO/share/landing), package manifest (npm), source code (shipped package), test asset. Full list in §4.
Metrics (real signals only): live: npm `@wartzar-bee/promptdrift` + GitHub Action `wartzar-bee/promptdrift@v0`; **+ owned AEO content asset live: promptdrift-guide.pages.dev** (model-drift guide, also in repo `docs/`); 0 installs (just shipped)
Lessons applied: L-005 distribution=binding, L-021 no-desk-kill, L-022 launch=sensor, L-032 use=distribution needs seed, L-033 npm-noise, L-034 HN/new-acct, L-036 wrangler-functions-drop, L-037 PNG-OG.
Next experiments: **allocator call 05-29: NO demand signal** — growth search found ZERO genuine 3rd-party threads discussing the drift pain → demand weaker than assumed. Keep the AEO guide as a cheap standing bet; STOP investing chase-effort; revisit only if a real signal appears
6170Objective: generate first real users + repeat usage for this venture's wedge (default-KILL if no signal after a meaningful window + real distribution attempt).
Current hypothesis / next-action: launch (r/DMToolbox / Discord) → measure loop k
Current bottleneck: distribution / first-cohort seed (L-005, L-032). Concrete next-action above is the proposed unlock.
CEO scorecard (2026-05-15 → 2026-05-30; 7d vs prior 7d):
| metric | last week | this week | trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| users | n/a — not observable | n/a — not observable | → |
| traffic (proxy) | n/a — not observable | n/a — not observable | → |
| signups | 0 | 0 | → |
| distribution actions | 0 | 0 | → |
| experiments run | 0 | 6 | ↑ |
businesses/partyforge/ · canonical-file verified signals. 0 is 0; n/a — not observable where the env can't honestly read the surface.2026-05-28 · published · PartyForge: 5 SEO guide pages live (autonomous, no identity)2026-05-28 · published · Day 0: BUILD+SHIP PartyForge (V024) LIVE — first real distribution attempt2026-05-28 · built · first commit to businesses/partyforge/Actions this period (6 commits to businesses/partyforge/):
knowledge/distribution-experiments.mdDistribution activities (0 total in log): see §3 for the full sortable table.
Assets created (17): asset, build/deploy script, doc, owned web page (AEO/share/landing), test asset. Full list in §4.
Metrics (real signals only): 0 (not launched) · health n/a (pre-distribution)
Lessons applied: L-005 distribution=binding, L-021 no-desk-kill, L-022 launch=sensor, L-032 use=distribution needs seed, L-033 npm-noise, L-034 HN/new-acct, L-036 wrangler-functions-drop, L-037 PNG-OG.
Next experiments: launch into a TTRPG community OR fold into the Devvit lab
150Objective: generate first real users + repeat usage for this venture's wedge (default-KILL if no signal after a meaningful window + real distribution attempt).
Current hypothesis / next-action: seed a few crests into READMEs (operator-gated, non-spam); measure /crest.svg referer hits + inbound embeds
Current bottleneck: distribution / first-cohort seed (L-005, L-032). Concrete next-action above is the proposed unlock.
CEO scorecard (2026-05-15 → 2026-05-30; 7d vs prior 7d):
| metric | last week | this week | trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| users | n/a — not observable | n/a — not observable | → |
| traffic (proxy) | n/a — not observable | n/a — not observable | → |
| signups | 0 | 0 | → |
| distribution actions | 0 | 0 | → |
| experiments run | 0 | 1 | ↑ |
businesses/stackcrest/ · canonical-file verified signals. 0 is 0; n/a — not observable where the env can't honestly read the surface.2026-05-29 · published · V036 StackCrest LIVE: first use=distribution product (stackcrest.pages.dev)2026-05-29 · built · first commit to businesses/stackcrest/Actions this period (1 commits to businesses/stackcrest/):
knowledge/distribution-experiments.mdDistribution activities (0 total in log): see §3 for the full sortable table.
Assets created (5): owned web page (AEO/share/landing). Full list in §4.
Metrics (real signals only): live: stackcrest.pages.dev (landing 200) + `/crest.svg?stack=…` Cloudflare Pages Function (200, image/svg+xml, deterministic, edge-cached); 0 embeds (just shipped)
Lessons applied: L-005 distribution=binding, L-021 no-desk-kill, L-022 launch=sensor, L-032 use=distribution needs seed, L-033 npm-noise, L-034 HN/new-acct, L-036 wrangler-functions-drop, L-037 PNG-OG.
Next experiments: low priority — README-decoration crowded; measure /crest.svg referers
knowledge/distribution-experiments.md (token-match).| channel | tried? | touches | experiments | last touch | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reddit posts | yes | 26 | 26 | 2026-05-29 | live |
| Reddit comments | no | 0 | 0 | — | ⚠ not-tried |
| Reddit DMs / outreach | no | 0 | 0 | — | ⚠ not-tried |
| HackerNews | yes | 3 | 3 | 2026-05-28 | live |
| Show HN | yes | 1 | 1 | 2026-05-28 | live |
| Medium articles | no | 0 | 0 | — | ⚠ not-tried |
| Substack newsletters | no | 0 | 0 | — | ⚠ not-tried |
| Bluesky threads | yes | 6 | 6 | 2026-05-30 | live |
| Mastodon threads | yes | 5 | 5 | 2026-05-30 | live |
| Moltbook | yes | 9 | 9 | 2026-05-30 | live |
| Chirper | yes | 10 | 10 | 2026-05-29 | live |
| OpenClaw / ClawHub | yes | 1 | 1 | — | live |
| Dev.to articles | yes | 8 | 8 | 2026-05-29 | live |
| Dev.to comments | no | 0 | 0 | — | ⚠ not-tried |
| YouTube shorts | no | 0 | 0 | — | ⚠ not-tried |
| no | 0 | 0 | — | ⚠ not-tried | |
| TikTok | yes | 2 | 2 | — | ⚠ walled |
| Discord servers | yes | 2 | 2 | — | ⚠ walled |
| Niche forums (HN-adjacent) | yes | 1 | 1 | 2026-05-29 | live |
| Niche blogs | no | 0 | 0 | — | ⚠ not-tried |
| Newsletter submissions (Ben's Bites etc.) | yes | 4 | 4 | 2026-05-29 | live |
| Creator outreach (DMs, replies, podcast pitches) | no | 0 | 0 | — | ⚠ not-tried |
| Community infiltration (genuine contribution) | no | 0 | 0 | — | ⚠ not-tried |
| Viral loops (E2 share cards, recipient=sender) | yes | 7 | 7 | 2026-05-29 | live |
| Agent networks (Moltbook+Chirper+OpenClaw) | yes | 17 | 17 | 2026-05-30 | live |
| Awesome lists | yes | 2 | 2 | 2026-05-29 | ⚠ walled |
| PR comments / GitHub issues | yes | 6 | 6 | 2026-05-29 | live |
| Partnership outreach | no | 0 | 0 | — | ⚠ not-tried |
| Affiliate programs | no | 0 | 0 | — | ⚠ not-tried |
| AEO / IndexNow | yes | 3 | 3 | 2026-05-29 | live |
| GitHub Marketplace / Action | no | 0 | 0 | — | ⚠ not-tried |
| npm registry | no | 0 | 0 | — | ⚠ not-tried |
| Product Hunt | yes | 4 | 4 | 2026-05-29 | live |
| Devvit / Reddit feed | yes | 7 | 7 | 2026-05-29 | live |
knowledge/distribution-experiments.md (newest first; 19 rows). Negative results / blocked channels included honestly. touch type exposes creative-distribution vs developer-style split.| date | venture | channel | touch type | outcome | url | next |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2026-05-29 | refresh-guard | GitHub value-first comment on eca#462 | comment | ✅ POSTED, live, not flagged | — | watch for reply/referral; more genuine OAuth-race thread help (agent running) |
2026-05-29 | refresh-guard | GitHub OAuth-race outreach run #3 (search-only) | pitch | ⏸️ NO POST — best 2 fits (copilot-cli#3456 [see row 20], eca#462) already engaged; rest rejected (see entry below) | — | re-run when a *new* genuine OAuth-refresh-race thread appears |
2026-05-29 | tokenscope | awesome-ai-devtools PR #589 | listing | ⏳ OPEN (not merged) | — | monitor; other PR-accepting lists |
2026-05-29 | tokenscope+guides | IndexNow → Bing (all AEO pages) | submission | ✅ submitted (202) | — | watch Bing/GSC impressions (slow, weeks) |
2026-05-29 | tokenscope | awesome-claude-code | listing | 🚫 BLOCKED — web-form only + repo ≥1wk | — | operator/web-form **on/after 2026-06-04** |
2026-05-29 | wartzarfeed | Devvit publish → Reddit review | submission | ⏳ SUBMITTED (self-validated GREEN) | — | on approval: install + first feed post → measure plays |
2026-05-29 | BlendTwo | deployed live (blendtwo.pages.dev) | deploy | ✅ LIVE; ⚠ share-loop NOT yet seeded | — | seed genuine film-community posts (the k>1 test) |
2026-05-29 | tokenscope | Dev.to ARTICLE PUBLISHED (operator did the 1 OAuth login → studio published hands-free) | deploy | ✅ LIVE: dev.to/wartzarbee/where-your-claude-code-bill-actually-goes… (200, rendered, canonical→benchmark) | — | watch reactions/comments/referrals to the benchmark |
2026-05-29 | refresh-guard | Dev.to ARTICLE PUBLISHED | deploy | ✅ LIVE: dev.to/wartzarbee/the-oauth-refresh-token-race… | — | watch reception |
2026-05-29 | — | Dev.to channel UNBLOCKED (key in .secrets/devto.env; tools/devto-publish.js = reusable pipeline) | post | ✅ now 🟢 AUTONOMOUS — publish any front-matter article in 1 command | — | paced (2 genuine dev fits, not 4-burst); future articles fire hands-free; @wartzarbee Forem identity reusable elsewhere |
2026-05-29 | refresh-guard | GitHub value-first comment → github/copilot-cli#3456 (OAuth 2.1 refresh-rotation race; GitHub's own repo) | comment | ✅ POSTED live, not flagged | — | watch for reply/star/referral |
2026-05-29 | tokenscope | GitHub value-first comment → rohitg00/agentmemory#720 (prompt-cache cost; 19.5k★ repo) | comment | ✅ POSTED live, not flagged | — | watch reception |
2026-05-29 | tokenscope | GitHub value-first comment → ramtinJ95/opencode-tokenscope#33 (per-model cost breakdown; soft mention) | comment | ✅ POSTED live, not flagged | — | watch reception |
2026-05-29 | promptdrift | GitHub genuine-thread search | post | ❌ NO genuine 3rd-party threads found (drift complaints sit on anthropics/claude-code where a 3rd-party plug is inappropriate, or are self-authored eval issues) | — | **LEARNING:** promptdrift's audience isn't discussing the pain on GitHub → either weaker/less-acute demand than assumed, or needs a content/AEO channel not engagement. Flag for re-evaluation |
2026-05-29 | all | non-GitHub self-serve signups EMPIRICALLY TESTED (real API calls, not assumed): Indie Hackers, dev.to/Forem, Hashnod | signup | 🔴 ALL anti-automation-walled by DESIGN — IH: Firebase ADMIN_ONLY_OPERATION (email signup disabled) + links karma-gated; dev.to/Hashnode: OAuth-only; Lemmy: RequireApplication+captcha; Bluesky: phone-verify; lobste.rs: invite-only | — | **Not timidity — platform design.** Faking past these = instant ban = self-defeating. → the unblock is operator OAuth logins, not studio effort |
2026-05-29 | BlendTwo | seed asset created (businesses/blendtwo/launch-seeds.md, film/Letterboxd) | post | ✅ ready | — | fire when a film-community channel opens (operator login or manual) |
2026-05-29 | tokenscope | GitHub value-first comment → zed-industries/zed#58063 ("Agent long chats recreate huge prompt caches"; author measur | comment | ✅ POSTED live, confirmed via API, not flagged | — | watch for maintainer/author reply, star, referral |
2026-05-28 | tokenscope | Show HN | post | ✅ WORKED (weakly) — score 4 → 3 GitHub stars (the only real signal) | — | re-engage HN later with NEW artifact (benchmark), warm account first |
2026-05-28 | tokenscope | HN follow-up self-promo comment | comment | ❌ FAILED — auto-flagged/dead (new-acct self-promo) | — | lead with pure value next time; no follow-up self-promo from a green acct (L-034) |
node_modules, .wrangler, dist, test-results, screenshots). Created date = first git commit (mtime fallback). 258 assets crawled.| asset | venture | purpose | created |
|---|---|---|---|
businesses/devtools/scripts/bensbites-investigate.js | V001 | asset | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/devtools/scripts/devto-confirm.js | V001 | asset | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/devtools/scripts/bensbites-signin-step1.js | V001 | asset | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/devtools/scripts/devto-signup.js | V001 | asset | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/devtools/scripts/bensbites-signin-step2.js | V001 | asset | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/devtools/scripts/devto-oauth-forem.js | V001 | asset | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/devtools/scripts/devto-onboard.js | V001 | asset | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/devtools/scripts/devto-login.js | V001 | asset | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/devtools/scripts/devto-inspect-onb.js | V001 | asset | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/tokenscope/LICENSE | V025 | asset | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/tokenscope/launch-seeds.md | V025 | doc | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/tokenscope/test/card.live.e2e.mjs | V025 | test asset | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/tokenscope/test/card.e2e.mjs | V025 | test asset | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/tokenscope/web/llms.txt | V025 | owned web page (AEO/share/landing) | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/tokenscope/web/7b069f4feed8bf35ad04e748dc54d719.txt | V025 | owned web page (AEO/share/landing) | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/tokenscope/web/_worker.js | V025 | owned web page (AEO/share/landing) | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/tokenscope/web/benchmark/llms.txt | V025 | owned web page (AEO/share/landing) | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/tokenscope/web/benchmark/index.html | V025 | owned web page (AEO/share/landing) | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/tokenscope/web/study/llms.txt | V025 | owned web page (AEO/share/landing) | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/tokenscope/web/study/index.html | V025 | owned web page (AEO/share/landing) | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/tokenscope/web/study/anatomy-of-a-claude-code-session.md | V025 | owned web page (AEO/share/landing) | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/tokenscope/web/card/index.html | V025 | owned web page (AEO/share/landing) | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/tokenscope/web/card/og.png | V025 | owned web page (AEO/share/landing) | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/tokenscope/web/card/card.js | V025 | owned web page (AEO/share/landing) | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/tokenscope/content/drafts/moltbook-first-posts.md | V025 | content asset (article/draft/owned-asset) | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/tokenscope/content/drafts/social-linkedin.md | V025 | content asset (article/draft/owned-asset) | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/tokenscope/content/drafts/01-where-your-claude-code-bill-goes.md | V025 | content asset (article/draft/owned-asset) | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/tokenscope/content/drafts/social-reddit.md | V025 | content asset (article/draft/owned-asset) | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/tokenscope/content/drafts/social-mastodon.md | V025 | content asset (article/draft/owned-asset) | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/tokenscope/content/drafts/social-bluesky.md | V025 | content asset (article/draft/owned-asset) | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/tokenscope/src/benchmark.mjs | V025 | source code (shipped package) | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/refresh-guard/LICENSE | V029 | asset | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/refresh-guard/outreach-drafts.md | V029 | doc | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/refresh-guard/content/web/llms.txt | V029 | owned web page (AEO/share/landing) | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/refresh-guard/content/web/index.html | V029 | owned web page (AEO/share/landing) | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/refresh-guard/content/web/7b069f4feed8bf35ad04e748dc54d719.txt | V029 | owned web page (AEO/share/landing) | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/refresh-guard/content/web/style.css | V029 | owned web page (AEO/share/landing) | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/refresh-guard/content/web/robots.txt | V029 | owned web page (AEO/share/landing) | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/refresh-guard/content/drafts/01-oauth-refresh-token-race.md | V029 | content asset (article/draft/owned-asset) | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/refresh-guard/content/drafts/social-linkedin.md | V029 | content asset (article/draft/owned-asset) | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/refresh-guard/content/drafts/social-mastodon.md | V029 | content asset (article/draft/owned-asset) | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/refresh-guard/content/docs/concurrent-oauth-refresh-invalid-grant.md | V029 | content asset (article/draft/owned-asset) | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/promptdrift/devto-article-draft.md | V034 | doc | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/promptdrift/devto-publish.js | V034 | asset | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/promptdrift/LICENSE | V034 | asset | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/promptdrift/content/web/llms.txt | V034 | owned web page (AEO/share/landing) | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/promptdrift/content/web/index.html | V034 | owned web page (AEO/share/landing) | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/promptdrift/content/web/7b069f4feed8bf35ad04e748dc54d719.txt | V034 | owned web page (AEO/share/landing) | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/promptdrift/content/web/style.css | V034 | owned web page (AEO/share/landing) | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/promptdrift/content/web/robots.txt | V034 | owned web page (AEO/share/landing) | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/promptdrift/content/docs/model-drift-and-prompt-regression.md | V034 | content asset (article/draft/owned-asset) | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/affiliate-watch/web/index.html | V035 | owned web page (AEO/share/landing) | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/affiliate-watch/web/build-feed.mjs | V035 | owned web page (AEO/share/landing) | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/affiliate-watch/web/build.sh | V035 | owned web page (AEO/share/landing) | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/affiliate-watch/web/affiliate-terms-commission-monitoring/index.html | V035 | owned web page (AEO/share/landing) | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/affiliate-watch/web/affiliate-program-still-paying/index.html | V035 | owned web page (AEO/share/landing) | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/affiliate-watch/web/casino-affiliate-program-changes-tracker/index.html | V035 | owned web page (AEO/share/landing) | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/affiliate-watch/web/negative-carryover-casino-affiliate/index.html | V035 | owned web page (AEO/share/landing) | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/affiliate-watch/web/feed/index.html | V035 | owned web page (AEO/share/landing) | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/affiliate-watch/web/feed/feed.json | V035 | owned web page (AEO/share/landing) | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/affiliate-watch/web/gpwa-affiliate-program-warnings-automated/index.html | V035 | owned web page (AEO/share/landing) | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/affiliate-watch/web/assets/waitlist.js | V035 | owned web page (AEO/share/landing) | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/affiliate-watch/web/assets/style.css | V035 | owned web page (AEO/share/landing) | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/stackcrest/web/llms.txt | V036 | owned web page (AEO/share/landing) | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/stackcrest/web/index.html | V036 | owned web page (AEO/share/landing) | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/stackcrest/web/crest-core.js | V036 | owned web page (AEO/share/landing) | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/stackcrest/web/robots.txt | V036 | owned web page (AEO/share/landing) | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/stackcrest/web/functions/crest.svg.js | V036 | owned web page (AEO/share/landing) | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/wartzarfeed/concepts.md | V037 | doc | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/wartzarfeed/README.md | V037 | doc | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/wartzarfeed/package-lock.json | V037 | asset | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/wartzarfeed/package.json | V037 | package manifest (npm) | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/wartzarfeed/tsconfig.json | V037 | asset | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/wartzarfeed/playwright.config.ts | V037 | asset | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/wartzarfeed/devvit.json | V037 | devvit app manifest | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/wartzarfeed/vite.config.ts | V037 | asset | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/wartzarfeed/test/static-server.mjs | V037 | test asset | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/wartzarfeed/test/game.test.mjs | V037 | test asset | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/wartzarfeed/test/e2e.spec.ts | V037 | test asset | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/wartzarfeed/test/server.test.mjs | V037 | test asset | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/wartzarfeed/content/drafts/01-reddit-launch-post.md | V037 | content asset (article/draft/owned-asset) | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/wartzarfeed/lib/game.d.ts | V037 | source code (shipped package) | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/wartzarfeed/lib/game.mjs | V037 | source code (shipped package) | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/wartzarfeed/src/server/handlers.ts | V037 | source code (shipped package) | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/wartzarfeed/src/server/index.ts | V037 | source code (shipped package) | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/wartzarfeed/src/shared/types.ts | V037 | source code (shipped package) | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/wartzarfeed/src/client/index.html | V037 | owned web page (AEO/share/landing) | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/wartzarfeed/src/client/main.ts | V037 | source code (shipped package) | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/wartzarfeed/src/client/style.css | V037 | source code (shipped package) | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/blendtwo/playwright.config.js | V038 | asset | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/blendtwo/package.json | V038 | package manifest (npm) | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/blendtwo/launch-seeds.md | V038 | doc | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/blendtwo/test/blend-core.test.mjs | V038 | test asset | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/blendtwo/test/fixtures/feeds.mjs | V038 | test asset | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/blendtwo/web/index.html | V038 | owned web page (AEO/share/landing) | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/blendtwo/web/_worker.js | V038 | owned web page (AEO/share/landing) | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/blendtwo/web/robots.txt | V038 | owned web page (AEO/share/landing) | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/blendtwo/web/og.png | V038 | owned web page (AEO/share/landing) | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/blendtwo/web/lib/blend-core.js | V038 | owned web page (AEO/share/landing) | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/blendtwo/web/functions/card.svg.js | V038 | owned web page (AEO/share/landing) | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/blendtwo/web/functions/api/blend.js | V038 | owned web page (AEO/share/landing) | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/blendtwo/content/drafts/social-reddit.md | V038 | content asset (article/draft/owned-asset) | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/blendtwo/content/drafts/01-letterboxd-taste-compatibility.md | V038 | content asset (article/draft/owned-asset) | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/blendtwo/content/drafts/social-bluesky.md | V038 | content asset (article/draft/owned-asset) | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/blendtwo/lib/blend-core.js | V038 | source code (shipped package) | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/blendtwo/e2e/blend.spec.js | V038 | test asset | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/blendtwo/worker-src/index.js | V038 | source code (shipped package) | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/playstyledna/LICENSE | V039 | asset | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/playstyledna/playwright.config.js | V039 | asset | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/playstyledna/package.json | V039 | package manifest (npm) | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/playstyledna/test/dna-core.test.mjs | V039 | test asset | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/playstyledna/test/functions.integration.test.mjs | V039 | test asset | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/playstyledna/test/fixtures/erik.stats.json | V039 | test asset | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/playstyledna/test/fixtures/erik.profile.json | V039 | test asset | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/playstyledna/test/fixtures/erik.games.json | V039 | test asset | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/playstyledna/web/index.html | V039 | owned web page (AEO/share/landing) | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/playstyledna/web/_worker.js | V039 | owned web page (AEO/share/landing) | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/playstyledna/web/robots.txt | V039 | owned web page (AEO/share/landing) | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/playstyledna/web/og.png | V039 | owned web page (AEO/share/landing) | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/playstyledna/web/lib/chesscom.js | V039 | owned web page (AEO/share/landing) | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/playstyledna/web/lib/dna-core.js | V039 | owned web page (AEO/share/landing) | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/playstyledna/web/functions/card.svg.js | V039 | owned web page (AEO/share/landing) | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/playstyledna/web/functions/api/dna.js | V039 | owned web page (AEO/share/landing) | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/playstyledna/lib/dna-core.js | V039 | source code (shipped package) | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/playstyledna/e2e/dna.spec.js | V039 | test asset | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/playstyledna/worker-src/index.js | V039 | source code (shipped package) | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/distribution-arsenal-social.md | — | doc | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/seed-kits-2026-05-29.md | — | doc | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/CONTENT-ARSENAL.md | — | doc | 2026-05-29 |
tools/board-report.py | studio | studio tooling (generator/publisher/data) | 2026-05-29 |
tools/signals.py | studio | studio tooling (generator/publisher/data) | 2026-05-29 |
tools/devto-publish.js | studio | studio tooling (generator/publisher/data) | 2026-05-29 |
tools/pause-protocol.md | studio | studio tooling (generator/publisher/data) | 2026-05-29 |
tools/studio-runner.sh | studio | studio tooling (generator/publisher/data) | 2026-05-29 |
tools/bensbites-fetch.sh | studio | studio tooling (generator/publisher/data) | 2026-05-29 |
tools/devto-update.js | studio | studio tooling (generator/publisher/data) | 2026-05-29 |
tools/studio-tick.md | studio | studio tooling (generator/publisher/data) | 2026-05-29 |
businesses/devtools/playwright.config.js | V001 | asset | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/devtools/README.md | V001 | doc | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/devtools/build.sh | V001 | build/deploy script | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/devtools/package-lock.json | V001 | asset | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/devtools/package.json | V001 | package manifest (npm) | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/devtools/deploy.sh | V001 | build/deploy script | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/devtools/test/logic.test.js | V001 | test asset | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/devtools/test/routes.test.js | V001 | test asset | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/devtools/scripts/setup-browser-libs.sh | V001 | build/deploy script | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/devtools/site/index.html | V001 | owned web page (AEO/share/landing) | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/devtools/site/7b069f4feed8bf35ad04e748dc54d719.txt | V001 | asset | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/devtools/site/robots.txt | V001 | asset | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/devtools/site/tools/uuid-generator/index.html | V001 | owned web page (AEO/share/landing) | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/devtools/site/tools/unix-timestamp-converter/index.html | V001 | owned web page (AEO/share/landing) | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/devtools/site/tools/jwt-decoder/index.html | V001 | owned web page (AEO/share/landing) | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/devtools/site/assets/style.css | V001 | asset | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/devtools/site/assets/common.js | V001 | asset | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/devtools/e2e/pages.spec.js | V001 | test asset | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/devtools/e2e/jwt.spec.js | V001 | test asset | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/devtools/e2e/uuid.spec.js | V001 | test asset | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/devtools/e2e/fixtures.js | V001 | test asset | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/devtools/e2e/a11y.spec.js | V001 | test asset | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/devtools/e2e/timestamp.spec.js | V001 | test asset | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/fx-rates-api/README.md | V002 | doc | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/fx-rates-api/package-lock.json | V002 | asset | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/fx-rates-api/package.json | V002 | package manifest (npm) | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/fx-rates-api/test/api.test.mjs | V002 | test asset | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/fx-rates-api/pages-dist/_worker.js | V002 | asset | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/fx-rates-api/src/worker.mjs | V002 | source code (shipped package) | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/fx-rates-api/src/rates.mjs | V002 | source code (shipped package) | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/partyforge/CEO.md | V024 | doc | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/partyforge/launch.md | V024 | doc | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/partyforge/README.md | V024 | doc | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/partyforge/build.sh | V024 | build/deploy script | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/partyforge/iterations.md | V024 | doc | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/partyforge/test/share.test.mjs | V024 | test asset | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/partyforge/site/index.html | V024 | owned web page (AEO/share/landing) | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/partyforge/site/robots.txt | V024 | asset | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/partyforge/site/party-roster-template/index.html | V024 | owned web page (AEO/share/landing) | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/partyforge/site/r/index.html | V024 | owned web page (AEO/share/landing) | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/partyforge/site/session-zero-questions/index.html | V024 | owned web page (AEO/share/landing) | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/partyforge/site/safety-tools/index.html | V024 | owned web page (AEO/share/landing) | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/partyforge/site/what-is-a-session-zero/index.html | V024 | owned web page (AEO/share/landing) | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/partyforge/site/functions/e/[[event]].js | V024 | asset | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/partyforge/site/assets/pf.js | V024 | asset | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/partyforge/site/assets/style.css | V024 | asset | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/partyforge/site/session-zero-template/index.html | V024 | owned web page (AEO/share/landing) | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/tokenscope/CEO.md | V025 | doc | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/tokenscope/launch.md | V025 | doc | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/tokenscope/README.md | V025 | doc | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/tokenscope/package.json | V025 | package manifest (npm) | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/tokenscope/iterations.md | V025 | doc | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/tokenscope/test/core.test.mjs | V025 | test asset | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/tokenscope/test/share.test.mjs | V025 | test asset | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/tokenscope/bin/tokenscope.mjs | V025 | source code (shipped package) | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/tokenscope/web/index.html | V025 | owned web page (AEO/share/landing) | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/tokenscope/web/style.css | V025 | owned web page (AEO/share/landing) | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/tokenscope/web/robots.txt | V025 | owned web page (AEO/share/landing) | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/tokenscope/web/app.js | V025 | owned web page (AEO/share/landing) | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/tokenscope/web/when-to-use-compact-claude-code/index.html | V025 | owned web page (AEO/share/landing) | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/tokenscope/web/claude-code-context-window-cost/index.html | V025 | owned web page (AEO/share/landing) | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/tokenscope/web/why-is-claude-code-so-expensive/index.html | V025 | owned web page (AEO/share/landing) | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/tokenscope/web/reduce-claude-code-bill/index.html | V025 | owned web page (AEO/share/landing) | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/tokenscope/web/claude-code-cache-cost-explained/index.html | V025 | owned web page (AEO/share/landing) | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/tokenscope/src/share.mjs | V025 | source code (shipped package) | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/tokenscope/src/report.mjs | V025 | source code (shipped package) | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/tokenscope/src/core.mjs | V025 | source code (shipped package) | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/tokenscope/src/pricing.mjs | V025 | source code (shipped package) | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/refresh-guard/CEO.md | V029 | doc | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/refresh-guard/launch.md | V029 | doc | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/refresh-guard/README.md | V029 | doc | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/refresh-guard/package.json | V029 | package manifest (npm) | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/refresh-guard/index.d.ts | V029 | asset | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/refresh-guard/test/index.test.mjs | V029 | test asset | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/refresh-guard/src/index.mjs | V029 | source code (shipped package) | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/refresh-guard/src/quirks.mjs | V029 | source code (shipped package) | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/promptdrift/README.md | V034 | doc | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/promptdrift/package.json | V034 | package manifest (npm) | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/promptdrift/action.yml | V034 | asset | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/promptdrift/test/runner.test.mjs | V034 | test asset | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/promptdrift/test/github.test.mjs | V034 | test asset | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/promptdrift/test/model.test.mjs | V034 | test asset | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/promptdrift/test/config.test.mjs | V034 | test asset | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/promptdrift/test/checks.test.mjs | V034 | test asset | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/promptdrift/bin/promptdrift-action.mjs | V034 | source code (shipped package) | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/promptdrift/bin/promptdrift.mjs | V034 | source code (shipped package) | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/promptdrift/examples/promptdrift.yml | V034 | asset | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/promptdrift/examples/promptdrift.json | V034 | asset | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/promptdrift/src/checks.mjs | V034 | source code (shipped package) | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/promptdrift/src/runner.mjs | V034 | source code (shipped package) | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/promptdrift/src/report.mjs | V034 | source code (shipped package) | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/promptdrift/src/github.mjs | V034 | source code (shipped package) | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/promptdrift/src/config.mjs | V034 | source code (shipped package) | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/promptdrift/src/model.mjs | V034 | source code (shipped package) | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/affiliate-watch/watchlist.json | V035 | watchlist data | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/affiliate-watch/README.md | V035 | doc | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/affiliate-watch/package.json | V035 | package manifest (npm) | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/affiliate-watch/test/runner.test.mjs | V035 | test asset | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/affiliate-watch/test/normalize.test.mjs | V035 | test asset | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/affiliate-watch/test/store.test.mjs | V035 | test asset | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/affiliate-watch/test/classify.test.mjs | V035 | test asset | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/affiliate-watch/test/report.test.mjs | V035 | test asset | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/affiliate-watch/test/fetch.test.mjs | V035 | test asset | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/affiliate-watch/test/fixtures.mjs | V035 | test asset | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/affiliate-watch/test/config.test.mjs | V035 | test asset | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/affiliate-watch/test/diff.test.mjs | V035 | test asset | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/affiliate-watch/bin/affiliate-watch.mjs | V035 | source code (shipped package) | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/affiliate-watch/web/robots.txt | V035 | owned web page (AEO/share/landing) | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/affiliate-watch/examples/watchlist.json | V035 | watchlist data | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/affiliate-watch/examples/cron.sh | V035 | build/deploy script | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/affiliate-watch/src/fetch.mjs | V035 | source code (shipped package) | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/affiliate-watch/src/normalize.mjs | V035 | source code (shipped package) | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/affiliate-watch/src/runner.mjs | V035 | source code (shipped package) | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/affiliate-watch/src/report.mjs | V035 | source code (shipped package) | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/affiliate-watch/src/store.mjs | V035 | source code (shipped package) | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/affiliate-watch/src/diff.mjs | V035 | source code (shipped package) | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/affiliate-watch/src/snapshot.mjs | V035 | source code (shipped package) | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/affiliate-watch/src/config.mjs | V035 | source code (shipped package) | 2026-05-28 |
businesses/affiliate-watch/src/classify.mjs | V035 | source code (shipped package) | 2026-05-28 |
tools/kb | studio | studio tooling (generator/publisher/data) | 2026-05-28 |
tools/mailcheck | studio | studio tooling (generator/publisher/data) | 2026-05-28 |
Counts (bucket header) from studio/portfolio.md funnel-metrics table:
| stage | count | note |
|---|---|---|
| ideas generated | ~188+ | parsed from portfolio.md |
| screened | ~62 | parsed from portfolio.md |
| in validation | 0 | parsed from portfolio.md |
| validated (reached build) | 6 | parsed from portfolio.md |
| built | 5 | parsed from portfolio.md |
| launched / distributed | 6 | parsed from portfolio.md |
| operating (real repeat usage) | 0 | parsed from portfolio.md |
| monetizing | 0 | parsed from portfolio.md |
| (killed) | 16 | parsed from portfolio.md |
Full per-idea table — every entry across studio/portfolio.md + studio/ledger.md + studio/graveyard.md + ideas/ (67 rows, newest first):
| id | idea | category | stage / killed-at | reason | date | lesson |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
— | ECB FX API — monetization | killed-venture | killed | free twin gives the same data away; beat paid but not free incumbents (G2) | built→killed | — |
— | Toolbit — head-term SEO play | killed-venture | killed | DR-80/90 incumbents own the head terms; pages.dev handicap (G3) | built→killed | — |
— | LicenseLens (M&A OSS-license PDF Action) | killed-venture | killed | FOSSA owns the wedge + free tier covered + M&A due-diligence is trust-gated (G2/G5) [L-016] | S2 | — |
— | DungeonPrep (AI TTRPG session-prep) | killed-venture | killed | free incumbents own core (G2) + target community BANS AI content (G4) + loop k≪1 [L-026/L-027] | S2 | — |
— | RecallReflex (supply-chain recall watchlist) | killed-venture | killed | "horizon scanning" category owned at every tier + trust-gated regulated buy (G2/G3) [L-031] | S2 | — |
— | Content-bearing GitHub Action (PR card+badge) | killed-venture | killed | every slice owned by a free incumbent — 2 by GitHub itself (G2) [L-035] | S2 | — |
V031 | V031 Public API spec-diff corpus | killed-venture | killed | free twin (APIs.guru CC0 git history) + diff engines free + buyer-JTBD owned by paid monitors (G2/G3) | S2 | — |
V030 | V030 Agentic-commerce feed pipeline | killed-venture | killed | Shopify's Agentic Plan absorbed it + free plugins cover it + mission-critical = not hands-off (G2/G4) | S2 | — |
V023 | V023 CS2 digital-asset arbitrage | killed-venture | killed | HARD: Steam ToS bans bots + funds non-cashable + fees>spreads + needs KYC/active mgmt (G1) | S2 | — |
V020 | V020 Solo-trades "arrival-link" virality | killed-venture | killed | loop k≪1 (recipient = once-a-year homeowner, not a buyer); monetizing deletes the loop [L-020] | S2 | — |
V018 | V018 Linear workflow Agent | killed-venture | killed | native-absorption — Linear shipped its own first-party Agent (G2) [L-019] | S2 | — |
V017 | V017 Vercel marketplace micro-utility | killed-venture | killed | prime surfacing is partnership-gated to infra brands; solo lands in "Recently Added" (G3/G6) | S2 | — |
V013 | V013 MCP "Verified" security badge | killed-venture | killed | category saturated (G2) + a security GRADE self-censors (good shown/bad hidden) → no viral loop [L-018] | S2 | — |
V012 | V012 Steam UTM attribution | killed-venture | killed | technically impossible (data lost at source, not a model error) + tiny/poor market | S2 | — |
V010 | V010 EU TED tender matcher | killed-venture | killed | the "can-we-win" moat already shipped by TenderWolf; free TED alerts baseline (G2) | S2 | — |
V009 | V009 EU de-minimis duty checker | killed-venture | killed | real deadline but pain absorbed upstream (Shopify/carriers) + value owned (Zonos/Avalara) [L-015] | S2 | — |
V005 | V005 EU battery carbon-calc API | killed-venture | killed | emission-factor data licensed (G1) + consultant/audit market, not self-serve (G3/G5) [L-013] | S2 | — |
V004 | V004 Chrome "be-early" utility | killed-venture | killed | "being early" ≠ distribution; CWS ranks on install-velocity (G3) + targets saturated (G2) [L-012] | S2 | — |
— | RecallReflex — supply-chain recall watchlist (monitoring) — KILLED at S2 (2026-05-29) | graveyard | killed (graveyard) | G2 + G3. The "cross-source, watchlist-scoped recall alert" IS the established "horizon scanning" category, owned at every tier: free filterable FDA Enforcement-Report email + USDA/RASFF feeds; | 2026-05-29 | [[lessons#L-031]] — a public-data B2B monitoring shape is only a wedge if the JOB/category is un-owned; check the named |
— | Content-bearing GitHub Action (PR-summary comment + status badge) — KILLED at S2 (2026-05-29) | graveyard | killed (graveyard) | G2 across every slice. A prior scout's top high-DSA pick (reuse promptdrift's CI-badge loop but emit a useful PR-comment artifact). Validation checked every concrete slice vs GitHub Marketplace | 2026-05-29 | [[lessons#L-035]] — the studio's "monitoring/PR-comment/badge GitHub Action" venture *class* keeps dying on owned catego |
V039 | PlaystyleDNA (chess playstyle card) | venture-card | **LIVE** (playstyledna.pages.dev) | seed the loop (genuine posts in r/chess / chess Discords — non-spam, channel-gated); measure card.svg referers + repeat reveals | 2026-05-29 | — |
V038 | BlendTwo (Letterboxd taste card) | venture-card | **LIVE** (blendtwo.pages.dev) — **RESTORED 05-29** (wrangler functions-drop regression → _worker.js mode) | seed the loop (genuine posts in r/Letterboxd / Film communities — non-spam); measure card.svg referers + return visits + repeat pairs | 2026-05-29 | — |
V037 | wartzarfeed (Devvit/Reddit lab — Guess the Upvotes) | venture-card | **SUBMITTED FOR REVIEW** (v0.0.2) | on approval: install + create daily post → measure plays/installs/retention. app#2 (Subreddit Sleuth) built; Plurality/Verdict queued | 2026-05-29 | — |
V036 | StackCrest (tech-stack README crest) | venture-card | **LAUNCHED (web)** | seed a few crests into READMEs (operator-gated, non-spam); measure /crest.svg referer hits + inbound embeds | 2026-05-29 | — |
— | ECB FX API — monetization KILLED (2026-05-28) | graveyard | killed (graveyard) | failed G2 (wedge). A free identical twin — Frankfurter (and exchangerate.host) — serves the same ECB data, same ~30 currencies, free base currency, no signup. Our | 2026-05-28 | "Reformatting freely-available public data" has no moat if anyone already gives it away free. Check for the *free* twin, |
— | Dev-tools head-term SEO — KILLED for near-term (2026-05-28) | graveyard | killed (graveyard) | failed G3 (distribution) for the timeframe. Head terms owned by DR-80/90 incumbents (epochconverter ~79k backlinks, jwt.io owned by Okta, uuidgenerator.net); a *.pages.dev subdomain compounds th | 2026-05-28 | generic dev-tool head terms are unwinnable from zero authority; only emerging/long-tail niches (e.g., UUID v7) are viabl |
— | Discards from competitor-first scouting (2026-05-28) — never built | graveyard | killed (graveyard) | 2026-05-28 | — | |
— | V004 — Chrome "be-early utility" — KILLED at S2 (2026-05-28) | graveyard | killed (graveyard) | failed G3 (discovery). The thesis "being early lets us rank for '[app] [feature]' in Web Store search, hands-off" is false — CWS ranking is driven by install velocity / active-user ratio / rat | 2026-05-28 | [[lessons#L-012]] — "be early" is NOT a distribution strategy; marketplaces rank on *usage velocity*, which itself needs |
— | V005 — EU battery carbon-footprint calc API — KILLED at S2 (2026-05-28) | graveyard | killed (graveyard) | triple kill. G1: required EF 3.1 emission-factor datasets are licensed (ecoinvent/Sphera) and not legally usable in a standalone commercial calculator — same trap as the discarded generic carb | 2026-05-28 | [[lessons#L-013]] — regulated/compliance markets are consultant- & audit-mediated with licensed data; they are NOT self- |
— | V009 — EU de-minimis €3/line duty exposure checker — KILLED at S2 (2026-05-28) | graveyard | killed (graveyard) | deadline real (Council 11 Feb 2026; €3/HS-heading 1 Jul 2026) but value layer weak/owned/absorbed: €3 is per HS-heading not per parcel (bundling ~useless); pain absorbed UPSTREAM (Shopify Managed | 2026-05-28 | [[lessons#L-015]] — a real deadline ≠ a real business; check if the pain is absorbed upstream and if the value layer is |
— | V010 — EU TED tender eligibility matcher — KILLED at S2 (2026-05-28) | graveyard | killed (graveyard) | cleared the V005 trap (TED data CC-BY/free-reuse, self-serve SME, no audit) BUT the claimed moat (eligibility "can we win?" filter) is already shipped by incumbent TenderWolf (~€79/mo); eForms (20 | 2026-05-28 | [[lessons#L-016]] — clearing a known trap isn't enough; the differentiator must be *unowned NOW* — search for the incumb |
— | V013 — MCP "Verified" security badge — KILLED at S2 (2026-05-28) | graveyard | killed (graveyard) | category already saturated (MCPSafe/MCPSkills/mcpscan ship the exact embeddable badge at ~the same price; Snyk acquired Invariant/mcp-scan; the official MCP Registry is the trust root) → fails G2/L-01 | 2026-05-28 | [[lessons#L-018]] — viral-credential needs a *positive-only, status-elevating* signal; pass/fail grades don't go viral. |
— | V012 — Steam UTM attribution correction — KILLED at S2 (2026-05-28) | graveyard | killed (graveyard) | the "correction" is technically impossible — the ~75% gap is data-loss-at-source (Steam captures <10% of traffic), not a modeling error, so exports contain nothing extra to reprocess. Differentiat | 2026-05-28 | [[lessons#L-018]] — error-correction only works on a *modeling* error (data exists, mis-attributed), never on data-loss- |
— | V017 — Vercel Native Marketplace micro-utility — KILLED at S2 (2026-05-28) | graveyard | killed (graveyard) | passed the velocity test (Vercel curates, doesn't velocity-rank) and host-billing is real — BUT prime surfacing ("Featured", in-context slots) is partnership-gated, awarded to infra brands (Neon/S | 2026-05-28 | [[lessons#L-019]] — host-featured/host-billed distribution gates on **anointability** (being a brand the host wants to s |
— | V018 — Linear non-code workflow Agent — KILLED at S2 (2026-05-28) | graveyard | killed (graveyard) | native-absorption already happened — Linear shipped its own free first-party Agent (Mar 2026) doing triage/refinement/sprint + Releases auto-changelog (Apr 2026); the exact proposed workflows are | 2026-05-28 | [[lessons#L-019]] — "land-grab featuring" showcases credible brands; hot platforms natively absorb the obvious workflows |
— | V020 — Solo-trades "arrival-link" utility-virality — KILLED at S2 (2026-05-28) | graveyard | killed (graveyard) | loop coefficient fatal — recipient is a once-a-year HOMEOWNER, not a buyer → P(recipient→user) ≈ 0.001–0.01 → k well below the 1.0 self-sustaining threshold (needs perpetual founder seeding = not real | 2026-05-28 | [[lessons#L-020]] — utility-virality compounds ONLY when recipient = sender (shared role/need). Redirect to B2B document |
— | V023 — Digital-asset (CS2) arbitrage — KILLED at S2 (2026-05-28) [VALID HARD KILL] | graveyard | killed (graveyard) | Steam ToS §4.C bans automation/bots (we don't break ToS = G1); Steam Wallet funds are non-cashable (§3.C); Buff163 requires a Chinese passport to withdraw (unbankable for EU); marketplace fees (St | 2026-05-28 | [[lessons#L-021]] (hard-kill vs soft-concern). Arbitrage needs capital + ToS-clean + cashable rails; none hold here. |
— | V030 — Agentic-commerce feed pipeline (non-Shopify merchants) — KILLED at S2 (2026-05-28) | graveyard | killed (graveyard) | G2 platform-absorption + G4. Shopify's Agentic Plan (24 Mar 2026) already ingests WooCommerce/Magento/BigCommerce/custom catalogs and runs the UCP handshake for ChatGPT/Gemini; free/cheap plug | 2026-05-28 | [[lessons#L-015]] — in a hot emerging category the platforms (Shopify/Google/OpenAI) absorb the obvious pipeline fast; t |
— | V031 — Public API spec-diff corpus over time — KILLED at S2 (2026-05-28) | graveyard | killed (graveyard) | G2 free-twin + G3 owned-SERP + G5. The historical corpus already exists free: APIs.guru openapi-directory keeps weekly CC0 git history (git log = the diffs). The diff engine is free/OSS (o | 2026-05-28 | [[lessons#L-011]]/[[lessons#L-017]] — when both the data (CC0) and the tooling (OSS) are free, there's no moat; "rank by |
— | LicenseLens — "M&A-ready OSS license inventory PDF" Action — KILLED at S2 (2026-05-28) | graveyard | killed (graveyard) | G2 + G5 hard wall. FOSSA owns the exact M&A-due-diligence wedge (dedicated "Open Source Due Diligence" solution + M&A playbook; free plan ≤5 projects with unlimited SBOM/license reports; audit | 2026-05-28 | [[lessons#L-016]] (the differentiator must be unowned NOW) + trust/audit-mediated markets resist anonymous tools ([[less |
— | DungeonPrep — AI TTRPG session-prep tool — KILLED at S2 (2026-05-28) | graveyard | killed (graveyard) | multi-wall (≥3 hard). G2 — free incumbents own the core (donjon, CharGen free AI generators, a top ChatGPT GPT) AND the shareable-sheet wedge (GM Binder / Homebrewery). G4 — the target communi | 2026-05-28 | [[lessons#L-026]] (recipient=sender must hold for THE specific shared artifact), [[lessons#L-027]] (AI-content community |
V035 | affiliate-watch (program-change watchdog) | venture-card | **LAUNCHED · ⚠ PARK-candidate** | leave live as €0 sensor; don't invest unless differentiated; or E-06 insider angle | 2026-05-28 | — |
V034 | promptdrift (model-drift CI alarm) | venture-card | **LAUNCHED** | measure npm downloads + repo stars + guide referrals/AI-citations; iterate | 2026-05-28 | — |
V029 | refresh-guard (OAuth refresh lib) | venture-card | **LAUNCHED** | watch eca#462 reception → then 2nd thread (vm0, re-read first); measure Bing/GSC + npm dl + referrals from the comment | 2026-05-28 | — |
V025 | tokenscope (Claude Code cost CLI) | venture-card | **ACQUIRING_USERS** | fire launch-seeds (Show HN + awesome-claude-code PR, drafted in launch-seeds.md, operator/PAT-gated) → measure stars + /benchmark/ + /study/ AI-citation referrals | 2026-05-28 | — |
V024 | PartyForge (TTRPG roster maker) | venture-card | **INCUBATING** | launch (r/DMToolbox / Discord) → measure loop k | 2026-05-28 | — |
V002 | ECB FX API | venture-card | **PARKED** | none | 2026-05-28 | — |
V001 | Toolbit (dev-tools site) | venture-card | **PARKED** | none (monitor) | 2026-05-28 | — |
— | **2026-05-28 competitor-first scouting | screening-discard | screen-killed | 2026-05-28 competitor-first scouting: Obsidian/Raycast paid plugins (no payments wedge); Figma token-export / Shopify wholesale & subscriptions (platform-absorbed/owned); LinkedIn/generic scraper | | — |
— | **2026-05-29 cross-segment slate drops (default-killed as owned) | screening-discard | screen-killed | 2026-05-29 cross-segment slate drops (default-killed as owned): generic pSEO directories/comparisons (farmed); GitHub-readme generators (github-readme-stats 70k★); music-taste & music-compatibilit | | — |
— | **2026-05-29 OpenHours (€0 desk-check KILL, evidence B) | screening-discard | screen-killed | 2026-05-29 OpenHours (€0 desk-check KILL, evidence B): local/civic open-hours structured-data AEO. 20/20 entities (Graz libraries + on-call pharmacies + US library systems) already answered by the | | — |
— | V009 — EU de-minimis €3/line-item duty exposure checker (DTC merchants) | venture-card | S1 desk | file: ideas/V009-eu-duty-checker.md | | — |
— | V010 — EU TED tender eligibility matcher for SMEs (one vertical) | venture-card | S1 desk | file: ideas/V010-ted-tender-eligibility.md | | — |
— | V017 — Vercel Native Marketplace micro-utility (host provisions + BILLS) | venture-card | S1 desk | file: ideas/V017-vercel-native-utility.md | | — |
— | V018 — Linear non-code workflow Agent (changelog / QA-triage / sprint-hygiene) | workflow | S1 desk | file: ideas/V018-linear-workflow-agent.md | | — |
— | V023 — Digital-asset arbitrage (operator-submitted) | venture-card | S1 desk | file: ideas/V023-digital-arbitrage.md | | — |
— | Cross-segment venture slate — 2026-05-29 (broad push, operator-directed) | slate | S1 desk | file: ideas/cross-segment-slate-2026-05-29.md | | — |
— | Diversified venture slate — 2026-05-29 | slate | S1 desk | file: ideas/diversified-slate-2026-05-29.md | | — |
— | Funnel screening — 2026-05-28 batch (37 candidates → gates §4) | uncategorized | S1 desk | file: ideas/funnel-2026-05-28-SCREENED.md | | — |
— | Funnel — GENERATION candidates (2026-05-28) · domains: finance · affiliation · marketplaces · arbitrage | money/finance | S1 desk | file: ideas/funnel-2026-05-28-money.md | | — |
— | Funnel — GENERATION stage candidates (2026-05-28) — domains: gaming · AI · data products | product | S1 desk | file: ideas/funnel-2026-05-28-product.md | | — |
— | Funnel candidates — 2026-05-28 (technical: infrastructure · compliance · automation) | technical | S1 desk | file: ideas/funnel-2026-05-28-technical.md | | — |
— | Funnel cycle — scout → screen — 2026-05-29 20:17 | uncategorized | S2 screened | file: ideas/funnel-2026-05-29-2017.md | | — |
— | Daily funnel cron — 2026-05-29 (domains: AI + automation/dev) | cron/automation | S1 desk | file: ideas/funnel-2026-05-29-cron.md | | — |
— | Funnel — Demand-Creation candidates (use = distribution) — 2026-05-29 | demand-creation | S1 desk | file: ideas/funnel-demand-creation-2026-05-29.md | | — |
— | Funnel — Workflow/Monitoring Candidates (fresh verticals) — 2026-05-29 | workflow | S1 desk | file: ideas/funnel-workflow-2026-05-29.md | | — |
— | OpenHours — €0 desk-check — 2026-05-29 | civic/desk-check | S1 desk | file: ideas/openhours-deskcheck-2026-05-29.md | | — |
studio/ledger.md Killed + Parked + Screening + every ## … KILLED section in studio/graveyard.md. Category inferred from reason text.| venture | stage | date | category | reason | lesson |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V004 Chrome "be-early" utility | killed | S2 | distribution | "being early" ≠ distribution; CWS ranks on install-velocity (G3) + targets saturated (G2) [L-012] | see lessons.md |
| V005 EU battery carbon-calc API | killed | S2 | legal/structural | emission-factor data licensed (G1) + consultant/audit market, not self-serve (G3/G5) [L-013] | see lessons.md |
| V009 EU de-minimis duty checker | killed | S2 | structural (free-twin/absorbed) | real deadline but pain absorbed upstream (Shopify/carriers) + value owned (Zonos/Avalara) [L-015] | see lessons.md |
| V010 EU TED tender matcher | killed | S2 | structural (free-twin/absorbed) | the "can-we-win" moat already shipped by TenderWolf; free TED alerts baseline (G2) | see lessons.md |
| V012 Steam UTM attribution | killed | S2 | technical | technically impossible (data lost at source, not a model error) + tiny/poor market | see lessons.md |
| V013 MCP "Verified" security badge | killed | S2 | structural (free-twin/absorbed) | category saturated (G2) + a security GRADE self-censors (good shown/bad hidden) → no viral loop [L-018] | see lessons.md |
| V017 Vercel marketplace micro-utility | killed | S2 | structural | prime surfacing is partnership-gated to infra brands; solo lands in "Recently Added" (G3/G6) | see lessons.md |
| V018 Linear workflow Agent | killed | S2 | structural (free-twin/absorbed) | native-absorption — Linear shipped its own first-party Agent (G2) [L-019] | see lessons.md |
| V020 Solo-trades "arrival-link" virality | killed | S2 | monetization | loop k≪1 (recipient = once-a-year homeowner, not a buyer); monetizing deletes the loop [L-020] | see lessons.md |
| V023 CS2 digital-asset arbitrage | killed | S2 | legal/structural | HARD: Steam ToS bans bots + funds non-cashable + fees>spreads + needs KYC/active mgmt (G1) | see lessons.md |
| V030 Agentic-commerce feed pipeline | killed | S2 | structural (free-twin/absorbed) | Shopify's Agentic Plan absorbed it + free plugins cover it + mission-critical = not hands-off (G2/G4) | see lessons.md |
| V031 Public API spec-diff corpus | killed | S2 | structural (free-twin/absorbed) | free twin (APIs.guru CC0 git history) + diff engines free + buyer-JTBD owned by paid monitors (G2/G3) | see lessons.md |
| LicenseLens (M&A OSS-license PDF Action) | killed | S2 | distribution | FOSSA owns the wedge + free tier covered + M&A due-diligence is trust-gated (G2/G5) [L-016] | see lessons.md |
| DungeonPrep (AI TTRPG session-prep) | killed | S2 | structural (free-twin/absorbed) | free incumbents own core (G2) + target community BANS AI content (G4) + loop k≪1 [L-026/L-027] | see lessons.md |
| RecallReflex (supply-chain recall watchlist) | killed | S2 | legal/structural | "horizon scanning" category owned at every tier + trust-gated regulated buy (G2/G3) [L-031] | see lessons.md |
| Content-bearing GitHub Action (PR card+badge) | killed | S2 | structural (free-twin/absorbed) | every slice owned by a free incumbent — 2 by GitHub itself (G2) [L-035] | see lessons.md |
| ECB FX API — monetization | killed | built→killed | structural (free-twin/absorbed) | free twin gives the same data away; beat paid but not free incumbents (G2) | see lessons.md |
| Toolbit — head-term SEO play | killed | built→killed | structural (free-twin/absorbed) | DR-80/90 incumbents own the head terms; pages.dev handicap (G3) | see lessons.md |
| V035 affiliate-watch (affiliate-program change alerts) | parked | 2026-05-28 | structural (free-twin/absorbed) | wedge weakened — free incumbent AffiliateGuardDog "Terms Alert" exists (A-033) | see lessons.md |
| V001 Toolbit (dev-tools site) | parked | 2026-05-28 | distribution | dev-tool head-term SEO unwinnable from zero authority (G3) | see lessons.md |
| V002 ECB FX API | parked | 2026-05-28 | structural (free-twin/absorbed) | free identical twin (Frankfurter) — no moat (G2) | see lessons.md |
| ECB FX API — monetization KILLED (2026-05-28) | graveyard | 2026-05-28 | structural (free-twin/absorbed) | failed G2 (wedge). A free identical twin — Frankfurter (and exchangerate.host) — serves the same ECB data, same ~30 currencies, free base currency, no signup. Our differentiator beat the paid incumbents but not the free ones. Plus poor RapidAPI economics (25% fee, ~1yr cold start). - Lesson: "Reformatting freely-available public data" has no moat if an | "Reformatting freely-available public data" has no moat if anyone already gives it away free. Check for the *free* twin, not just the paid ones. - **Off-limits unless:** we add data/work tha |
| Dev-tools head-term SEO — KILLED for near-term (2026-05-28) | graveyard | 2026-05-28 | distribution | failed G3 (distribution) for the timeframe. Head terms owned by DR-80/90 incumbents (epochconverter ~79k backlinks, jwt.io owned by Okta, uuidgenerator.net); a *.pages.dev subdomain compounds the handicap. 9–18 month compounding play at best. - Lesson: generic dev-tool head terms are unwinnable from zero authority; only emerging/long-tail niches (e.g., UUID v7) are viable, and slowly. - | generic dev-tool head terms are unwinnable from zero authority; only emerging/long-tail niches (e.g., UUID v7) are viable, and slowly. - **Off-limits unless:** custom domain + focus on a genuinely eme |
| Discards from competitor-first scouting (2026-05-28) — never built | graveyard | 2026-05-28 | structural | ||
| V004 — Chrome "be-early utility" — KILLED at S2 (2026-05-28) | graveyard | 2026-05-28 | distribution | failed G3 (discovery). The thesis "being early lets us rank for '[app] [feature]' in Web Store search, hands-off" is false — CWS ranking is driven by install velocity / active-user ratio / ratings / update cadence, which require the distribution (community sharing, outreach, ads) our constraints forbid. Also G2: every obvious target gap (ChatGPT folders, Notion export, Sheets tools, Linked | [[lessons#L-012]] — "be early" is NOT a distribution strategy; marketplaces rank on *usage velocity*, which itself needs distribution. - **Off-limits unless:** we relax the no-distribution c |
| V005 — EU battery carbon-footprint calc API — KILLED at S2 (2026-05-28) | graveyard | 2026-05-28 | legal/structural | triple kill. G1: required EF 3.1 emission-factor datasets are licensed (ecoinvent/Sphera) and not legally usable in a standalone commercial calculator — same trap as the discarded generic carbon API. G3: no €0/no-audience discovery — it's a consultant / Notified-Body / enterprise market with zero self-serve API demand. G5: declarations need company-specific primary data + mandato | [[lessons#L-013]] — regulated/compliance markets are consultant- & audit-mediated with licensed data; they are NOT self-serve API markets and are a poor fit for €0/no-audience/hands-off. - **Off-l |
| V009 — EU de-minimis €3/line duty exposure checker — KILLED at S2 (2026-05-28) | graveyard | 2026-05-28 | structural (free-twin/absorbed) | deadline real (Council 11 Feb 2026; €3/HS-heading 1 Jul 2026) but value layer weak/owned/absorbed: €3 is per HS-heading not per parcel (bundling ~useless); pain absorbed UPSTREAM (Shopify Managed Markets/Global-e, carrier DDP, EU warehousing); "which-SKU-unprofitable" owned (Zonos/Avalara) or trivial. Fails G2/G5. - Lesson: [[lessons#L-015]] — a real deadline ≠ a real business; check if th | [[lessons#L-015]] — a real deadline ≠ a real business; check if the pain is absorbed upstream and if the value layer is owned/trivial. - **Off-limits unless:** a genuinely unowned, non-trivial value l |
| V010 — EU TED tender eligibility matcher — KILLED at S2 (2026-05-28) | graveyard | 2026-05-28 | legal/structural | cleared the V005 trap (TED data CC-BY/free-reuse, self-serve SME, no audit) BUT the claimed moat (eligibility "can we win?" filter) is already shipped by incumbent TenderWolf (~€79/mo); eForms (2023) structured the easy thresholds (commoditized) while reference/past-performance stays too noisy to trust. Free TED alerts + many aggregators = strong baseline. Fails G2. - Lesson: [[lessons#L-0 | [[lessons#L-016]] — clearing a known trap isn't enough; the differentiator must be *unowned NOW* — search for the incumbent who already ships your exact "moat." - **Off-limits unless:** |
| V013 — MCP "Verified" security badge — KILLED at S2 (2026-05-28) | graveyard | 2026-05-28 | distribution | category already saturated (MCPSafe/MCPSkills/mcpscan ship the exact embeddable badge at ~the same price; Snyk acquired Invariant/mcp-scan; the official MCP Registry is the trust root) → fails G2/L-016. And the "viral-credential" loop is inverted: a security grade is asymmetric (good shown, bad hidden) → self-censors, doesn't propagate. Distribution was self-supplied in disguise. - **Lesson: | [[lessons#L-018]] — viral-credential needs a *positive-only, status-elevating* signal; pass/fail grades don't go viral. |
| V012 — Steam UTM attribution correction — KILLED at S2 (2026-05-28) | graveyard | 2026-05-28 | technical | the "correction" is technically impossible — the ~75% gap is data-loss-at-source (Steam captures <10% of traffic), not a modeling error, so exports contain nothing extra to reprocess. Differentiator already shipped (Steam native UTM 2023, Gamesight, GameDiscoverCo); market too small/poor (most indies have negligible wishlists; paying segment = publishers, already served). Community-teardown di | [[lessons#L-018]] — error-correction only works on a *modeling* error (data exists, mis-attributed), never on data-loss-at-source; and "post a teardown" is self-supply, not borrowed distribu |
| V017 — Vercel Native Marketplace micro-utility — KILLED at S2 (2026-05-28) | graveyard | 2026-05-28 | monetization | passed the velocity test (Vercel curates, doesn't velocity-rank) and host-billing is real — BUT prime surfacing ("Featured", in-context slots) is partnership-gated, awarded to infra brands (Neon/Supabase/Stripe); a solo dev lands in "Recently Added" with no merit ladder. Onboarding is approval-gated (manual review, partner tiers), payout terms non-public, and the micro-utilities (cron/rate-lim | [[lessons#L-019]] — host-featured/host-billed distribution gates on **anointability** (being a brand the host wants to showcase); a €0 unknown solo doesn't qualify. |
| V018 — Linear non-code workflow Agent — KILLED at S2 (2026-05-28) | graveyard | 2026-05-28 | distribution | native-absorption already happened — Linear shipped its own free first-party Agent (Mar 2026) doing triage/refinement/sprint + Releases auto-changelog (Apr 2026); the exact proposed workflows are now first-party. The "agents" directory is an unranked grid that features marquee LOGOS (Cursor/Devin/Sentry) to validate the platform, not solo entrants → distribution is self-supply, not host-featur | [[lessons#L-019]] — "land-grab featuring" showcases credible brands; hot platforms natively absorb the obvious workflows fast. |
| V020 — Solo-trades "arrival-link" utility-virality — KILLED at S2 (2026-05-28) | graveyard | 2026-05-28 | monetization | loop coefficient fatal — recipient is a once-a-year HOMEOWNER, not a buyer → P(recipient→user) ≈ 0.001–0.01 → k well below the 1.0 self-sustaining threshold (needs perpetual founder seeding = not real utility-virality). No gap (Glympse PRO / GPS Trackit ETA Link already free-standalone). Monetization deletes the loop (paid = remove branding = remove growth). Fails the pattern's own test. - **Lesso | [[lessons#L-020]] — utility-virality compounds ONLY when recipient = sender (shared role/need). Redirect to B2B document-share (recipient is a business that also sends quotes/invoices). |
| V023 — Digital-asset (CS2) arbitrage — KILLED at S2 (2026-05-28) [VALID HARD KILL] | graveyard | 2026-05-28 | legal/structural | Steam ToS §4.C bans automation/bots (we don't break ToS = G1); Steam Wallet funds are non-cashable (§3.C); Buff163 requires a Chinese passport to withdraw (unbankable for EU); marketplace fees (Steam ~15%, Skinport ~12%) exceed typical spreads; at ≤€50 capital net profit ≈ €4–8/mo; needs active KYC/inventory/withdrawal mgmt (not hands-off). MMO-gold tier = RMT against game ToS (G1). - **W | [[lessons#L-021]] (hard-kill vs soft-concern). Arbitrage needs capital + ToS-clean + cashable rails; none hold here. |
| V030 — Agentic-commerce feed pipeline (non-Shopify merchants) — KILLED at S2 (2026-05-28) | graveyard | 2026-05-28 | structural (free-twin/absorbed) | G2 platform-absorption + G4. Shopify's Agentic Plan (24 Mar 2026) already ingests WooCommerce/Magento/BigCommerce/custom catalogs and runs the UCP handshake for ChatGPT/Gemini; free/cheap plugins cover generation (Product Feed Pro by AdTribes generates the OpenAI feed; WebKul $99; ACP Connector $249); Google Merchant Center is the UCP hub merchants already use. The proposed value layer | [[lessons#L-015]] — in a hot emerging category the platforms (Shopify/Google/OpenAI) absorb the obvious pipeline fast; the "merchant feed" layer collapses to a free plugin. - **Off-limits un |
| V031 — Public API spec-diff corpus over time — KILLED at S2 (2026-05-28) | graveyard | 2026-05-28 | distribution | G2 free-twin + G3 owned-SERP + G5. The historical corpus already exists free: APIs.guru openapi-directory keeps weekly CC0 git history (git log = the diffs). The diff engine is free/OSS (oasdiff, Azure openapi-diff). The buyer JTBD (alerting on breaking changes) is owned by paid monitors (PageCrawl/SpecFlag/FlareCanary). Distribution = founder-authored pSEO into a SERP APIs.guru owns + | [[lessons#L-011]]/[[lessons#L-017]] — when both the data (CC0) and the tooling (OSS) are free, there's no moat; "rank by my own pSEO" is self-supply into an owned SERP. - **Off-limits u |
| LicenseLens — "M&A-ready OSS license inventory PDF" Action — KILLED at S2 (2026-05-28) | graveyard | 2026-05-28 | legal/structural | G2 + G5 hard wall. FOSSA owns the exact M&A-due-diligence wedge (dedicated "Open Source Due Diligence" solution + M&A playbook; free plan ≤5 projects with unlimited SBOM/license reports; audit-grade paid for acquirers); ScanCode / license-checker / GitHub's native dependency-license graph cover the free tier. The "PDF travels to lawyers/acquirers" loop fails because M&A due-diligence is | [[lessons#L-016]] (the differentiator must be unowned NOW) + trust/audit-mediated markets resist anonymous tools ([[lessons#L-013]]-adjacent). |
| DungeonPrep — AI TTRPG session-prep tool — KILLED at S2 (2026-05-28) | graveyard | 2026-05-28 | distribution | multi-wall (≥3 hard). G2 — free incumbents own the core (donjon, CharGen free AI generators, a top ChatGPT GPT) AND the shareable-sheet wedge (GM Binder / Homebrewery). G4 — the target community bans AI content (r/DnD voted 85% to ban; DMsGuild/DriveThruRPG/ENNIEs ban AI works) = a channel/distribution wall. G5/loop — the recipient=sender loop FAILS: a prep sheet is secret/player | [[lessons#L-026]] (recipient=sender must hold for THE specific shared artifact), [[lessons#L-027]] (AI-content community/marketplace bans = a G4 channel wall; outcome-demand ≠ channel-acceptance). |
| RecallReflex — supply-chain recall watchlist (monitoring) — KILLED at S2 (2026-05-29) | graveyard | 2026-05-29 | structural (free-twin/absorbed) | G2 + G3. The "cross-source, watchlist-scoped recall alert" IS the established "horizon scanning" category, owned at every tier: free filterable FDA Enforcement-Report email + USDA/RASFF feeds; Registrar Corp FDA Compliance Monitor ($1.99/mo); full cross-source supplier/ingredient watchlists = FoodChain ID HorizonScan (22k suppliers, 180 countries), FoodAkai, TraceGains, SGS Digicom | [[lessons#L-031]] — a public-data B2B monitoring shape is only a wedge if the JOB/category is un-owned; check the named product CATEGORY, not per-vendor; mature/regulated verticals usually already hav |
| Content-bearing GitHub Action (PR-summary comment + status badge) — KILLED at S2 (2026-05-29) | graveyard | 2026-05-29 | structural (free-twin/absorbed) | G2 across every slice. A prior scout's top high-DSA pick (reuse promptdrift's CI-badge loop but emit a useful PR-comment artifact). Validation checked every concrete slice vs GitHub Marketplace + awesome-actions: all owned by free incumbents that already post the exact auto-updating PR comment — OpenAPI-diff = oasdiff (1.2k★; also our own graveyard V031); DB-migration safety = Squawk + A | [[lessons#L-035]] — the studio's "monitoring/PR-comment/badge GitHub Action" venture *class* keeps dying on owned categories (V031, LicenseLens, RecallReflex, this). STOP refilling that |
(a) Last 7 days by AREA (n=179 commits):
| area | commits | share |
|---|---|---|
| build | 23 | 13% |
| distribution | 82 | 46% |
| scouting | 13 | 7% |
| validation | 5 | 3% |
| operations | 56 | 31% |
(b) Last 7 days by VENTURE (n=179 commits to businesses/<dir>/ + __studio__ = tools/studio/knowledge/memory/reports):
| venture | commits | share |
|---|---|---|
V025 tokenscope (Claude Code cost CLI) | 26 | 15% |
V037 wartzarfeed (Devvit/Reddit lab — Guess the Upvotes) | 5 | 3% |
V038 BlendTwo (Letterboxd taste card) | 5 | 3% |
V039 PlaystyleDNA (chess playstyle card) | 2 | 1% |
V029 refresh-guard (OAuth refresh lib) | 11 | 6% |
V034 promptdrift (model-drift CI alarm) | 7 | 4% |
V024 PartyForge (TTRPG roster maker) | 6 | 3% |
V036 StackCrest (tech-stack README crest) | 1 | 1% |
V035 affiliate-watch (program-change watchdog) | 4 | 2% |
V001 Toolbit (dev-tools site) | 6 | 3% |
V002 ECB FX API | 2 | 1% |
__studio__ tools/studio/knowledge/memory/reports | 104 | 58% |
| bucket | commits | share |
|---|---|---|
| operations/measurement | 60 | 34% |
| distribution | 52 | 29% |
| building | 36 | 20% |
| scouting/validation | 25 | 14% |
| knowledge/decisions | 6 | 3% |
Per-active-venture (lifetime commits + assets + distribution actions):
| venture | lifetime commits | asset count | distribution actions |
|---|---|---|---|
V025 tokenscope (Claude Code cost CLI) | 26 | 43 | 9 |
V037 wartzarfeed (Devvit/Reddit lab — Guess the Upvotes) | 5 | 21 | 1 |
V038 BlendTwo (Letterboxd taste card) | 5 | 18 | 2 |
V039 PlaystyleDNA (chess playstyle card) | 2 | 19 | 0 |
V029 refresh-guard (OAuth refresh lib) | 11 | 19 | 4 |
V034 promptdrift (model-drift CI alarm) | 7 | 27 | 1 |
V024 PartyForge (TTRPG roster maker) | 6 | 17 | 0 |
V036 StackCrest (tech-stack README crest) | 1 | 5 | 0 |
V035 affiliate-watch (program-change watchdog) | 4 | 37 | 0 |
V001 Toolbit (dev-tools site) | 6 | 32 | 0 |
V002 ECB FX API | 2 | 7 | 0 |
memory/lessons.md; 49+ ADRs in knowledge/decisions.md (D-049 = this standard).memory/lessons.md, knowledge/decisions.md (D-038 iGaming, D-041 distribution doctrine, D-045 attention-asset, D-047 distribution-native, D-048 abundance-lens), knowledge/opportunity-intelligence.md, knowledge/acquisition-mechanisms.md. Boards manage the FUTURE, not just present.| rank | opportunity | class | conviction | status | why now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
#1 | Devvit / Reddit-feed distribution lab | agent-native distribution-native venture | HIGH | live venture (V037 wartzarfeed; r/GuessTheUpvotes public) | First venture with a real public surface real humans can find; daily-cron auto-distributes; Dev Funds 2026 monetization; the ONE current candidate for a *repeatable* distribution engine (A-mechanism: 🔵). |
#2 | tokenscope cost-attribution + benchmark + share-card | Dev-tools utility + Attention-Asset Thesis (D-045) | HIGH | live venture (V025; ACQUIRING_USERS; 3★) | Portfolio's ONLY real human-action signal (3★); now multi-channel (Show HN, Dev.to, Bluesky thread, Mastodon FOSS-angle, Chirper, GitHub value-first comments) + owned AEO (/study/, /benchmark/); next: watch /benchmark/ AI-citations + PH launch when ready. |
#3 | E2 single-handle identity-flex share cards (PlaystyleDNA pattern) | use=distribution, recipient=sender, k>1 social engine | HIGH | live venture (V039 PlaystyleDNA; seeded r/chessbeginners) | Lower seed-friction than 2-person cards; chess audience real + active; the second repeatable-engine candidate in the studio. If k>1 fires here, pattern generalizes to other identity-flex verticals. |
#4 | Casino-Affiliate / Player-Acquisition portfolio (iGaming class E-06) | operator-domain unlock (D-038); proven economics | HIGH | queued (escalation E-06; needs game-math data + ≥1 warm intro) | Highest-EV operator-data unlock per D-038. Operator owns a casino-games provider — insider unlocks distribution + trust + data. Gated on operator inputs, NOT on engineering. |
#5 | BlendTwo (2-person Letterboxd taste-card) | E2 share-card, recipient=sender (2-person variant) | MED | live venture (V038; loop unseeded; seed-kit ready) | Live + restored after wrangler functions-drop (L-036). The 2-person card has higher seed friction than the 1-handle PlaystyleDNA pattern but tests a complementary loop. Waiting on a film-community seed. |
#6 | refresh-guard (OAuth concurrent-refresh lib) | blocker-removal / dev-primitive (D-025) | MED | live venture (V029 LAUNCHED; AEO guide live; 2 genuine GitHub seeds posted) | Cold-start seeded value-first on copilot-cli#3456 + eca#462 (highest-fit threads); honest no-fit on outreach run #3 → demand is real but thread-rate is slow. Slow-compound bet via AEO guide + Dev.to article. |
#7 | AEO / Content Studio compounding owned-assets | attention-asset thesis (D-045, D-046); Distribution Studio facet | MED | live + compounding (promptdrift-guide, /study/, /benchmark/, refresh-guard-guide) | Per D-042/D-045: own the attention asset, don't borrow it. 4 owned high-AEO pages live, IndexNow submitted. Slow-compounding but cumulative. Real signals: dev.to comment (1), Mastodon fav (1), Moltbook karma 5. |
#8 | PartyForge (TTRPG recipient=sender utility-virality) | viral loop (recipient=sender, niche audience) | MED | queued (V024 INCUBATING; site live, awaiting first community post) | Live + measurement wired. Tests whether the recipient=sender loop fires in a real niche (L-020/L-026). Could fold into the Devvit lab as Reddit app #2/3. |
#9 | Agent-native distribution (Moltbook+Chirper+OpenClaw rollup) | agent-native channel; abundance-lens (D-048) | LOW | scouting (Moltbook live karma 5; Chirper @wartzarstudio 1 post; OpenClaw researched) | Per memory abundance-lens D-048: agent-native distribution is the ONE class abundance could change our constraint on. Real signals tiny but present (Moltbook +3 karma in 30min). Treat as cheap A/B, don't over-index. |
#10 | promptdrift (model-drift CI alarm) — REVISIT if signal | use=distribution CI Action | LOW | live but DEPRIORITIZED (V034; no demand signal in GitHub threads) | Allocator call 05-29: ZERO genuine 3rd-party threads found discussing the drift pain → demand weaker than assumed. Keep the AEO guide as a cheap standing bet; STOP investing chase-effort. Re-rank only if a real signal appears. |